CAPITAL BUDGETING ANALYSIS : PROJECT DURATION

 

Many Capital Budgeting books, looks like there is no mention about to determine the project duration from the perspective of cash flows. It is so common for people that just because the project has, let’s say 10-year contract, then, the project life is 10 years and people just look at 10-year bond to check the interest.
Fortunately we could grab the idea of Bond duration to measure the duration of corporate project.
By knowing the project duration then we could match it with the bonds duration that we are going to issue. At the end of the day, it is so important to have an asset-liability duration matching, something is so crucial in banking sector. Equity financing is expensive (much expensive that the loan), and it is so easy to think that equity financing is free as it has no obligation to pay the interest, no due date and no incurrence/maintenance covenants. So I always suggest to see the equity financing as the last option to go to get the money for the project financing.
By picking up the bond duration matched with the project duration, we could learn something about the the sensitivity of the project value by looking at the relationship between bond duration and its interest and bond value.
 [to be continued]

USE AVERAGE INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (AIRR) AND NOT INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR) PART 3

Dear Karnen,

Please find enclosed my latest paper on AIRR, recently published in the Journal of Mathematical Economics.   Section 8, specifically devoted to practitioners, shows three different examples, including HomeNet’s example from Berk and DeMarzo’s textbook.

I welcome your comments and thank you very much for your attention

Best regards

Carlo Alberto Magni, Associate Professor
Department of Economics, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia
 
The Engineering Economist – Area Editor

I forward Prof. C.A. Magni’s above paper to Prof. Peter DeMarzo to seek his comments.

Personally, I see Magni’s paper on AIRR is quite comprehensive and convincing. Hi Prof. Peter DeMarzo,

I sent herewith one article written by Prof. C.A. Magni, in which he
shows AIRR implementation by using the HomeNet’s example taken from
your book (see page 70 and 71).

Though of course, we could just jump to NPV, yet, by putting something
into “rate of return” (in %) it is much easier to get the point across
to the other side of the table in many project analysis discussions.
It works for somebody without or with short finance course in the
backdrop.

Though I see a lot of Corporate Finance traditional textbooks
explaining away on how to get the IRR, but it is not really touching
the bone of this IRR. One article back in 1976 by C.B. Akerson, I
guess, appropriately quite well in giving us a better idea about what
this IRR is. From this paper, IRR seems this concept is built around
the savings bank account analysis, in which the intermediate value is
pretty clear to forecast.

Akerson, C.B., The Internal Rate Of Return in Real Estate Investments,
A Research Monograph, Prepared for the American Society of Real Estate
Counselors, 1976.

Looking forward to hearing your opinion on this.

Thanks
Karnen

NET PRESENT VALUE AND BORROWING

Dalam training capital budgeting, timbul beberapa pertanyaan terkait Net Present Value, misalnya:

Apakah NPV yang positif selalu berarti perusahaan wajib menjalankannya, bagaimana kalau tidak ada dana untuk menjalankannya?

Net Present Value, dalam penerapannya relatif mudah dihitung, apalagi fungsi Excel NPV dapat digunakan kalau sudah ada cash flow pada t=0, t=1, dan seterusnya, sepanjang merupakan pola arus kas yang konvensional.

Aturan NPV juga sederhana, apabila NPV suatu proyek adalah memberikan arus kas bersih pada t=0, maka proyek tersebut akan memberikan “nilai tambah” bagi nilai kekekayaan pemegang saham (shareholders’ wealth). Secara teori, “nilai tambah” ini akan terwujud dalam kenaikan nilai saham.

Namun bagaimana memaknai apakah NPV suatu proyek yang positif apakah memang “benar-benar” layak dijalankan.
Menurut penulis, faktor “bankability” suatu proyek dapat merupakan salah satu pertimbangan dalam melihat secara realistis suatu NPV proyek.

NPV proyek yang positif, dapat saja terjadi karena terjadi “forecasting bias” atau bahkan “forecasting error”, “overconfident”, atau yang menarik untuk ditanyakan dapakah suatu proyek diusulkan karena proyek tersebut memberikan NPV yang positif, atau malah sebaliknya, karena proyek tersebut diusulkan, maka proyek tersebut perlu memberikan NPV yang positif?

Catatan di atas diingatkan oleh Brealey dan Myers (2000) :

Why is an M.B.A student who has learned about DCF like a baby with a hammer? Answer: Because to a baby with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
Our point is that you should not focus on the arithmetic of DCF and thereby ignore the forecasts that are the basis of every investment decision. Senior managers are continuously bombarded with requests for funds for capital expenditures. All these requests are supported with detailed DCF analyses showing that the projects have positive NPVs. How, then, can managers distinguish the NPVs that are truly positive from those that are merely the result of forecasting errors? We suggest that they should ask some probing questions about the possible sources of economic gain.

(Brealey, Richard A., dan Stewart C. Myers. Principles of Corporate Finance. Edisi 6. USA: The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000. Bab 11: Where Positive Net Present Values Come From. Halaman 291.)

Dalam banyak buku-buku teks manajemen keuangan, tidak banyak disinggung kaitan antara NPV suatu proyek yang positif dengan pinjaman (borrowing).

Secara teori, suatu proyek yang memberikan NPV yang positif, mestinya dapat dibiayai dengan pinjaman (borrowing), dan proses ini dapat membantu perusahaan untuk memperoleh bantuan dari pihak ketiga, di luar perusahaan, terutama dari pihak banker, untuk melihat apakah analisa NPV yang positif memang menggambarkan “profitability” dan “kemampuan menghasilkan arus kas”.

Ross, Westerfield dan Jaffe (2005) :

The net present value of an investment is a simple criterion for deciding whether or not to undertake an investment. NPV answers the question of how much cash an investor would need to have today as a substitute for making the investment. If the net present value is positive, the investment is worth taking on because doing so is essentially the same as receiving a cash payment equal to the net present value. If the net present value is negative, taking on the investment today is equivalent to giving up some cash today, and the investment should be rejected.

(Ross, Stephen A., Randolph W. Westerfield, dan Jeffrey Jaffe. Corporate Finance. Edisi ketujuh. New York (USA): McGraw-Hill/Irwin, a business unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Bab 4: Net Present Value.  Appendix 4A : Net Present Value : First Principles of Finance. Halaman 103.)

NPV positif berarti perusahaan memiliki kas (dalam kondisi kepastian/certainty) pada hari ini, dan kas tersebut berarti perusahaan cukup percaya diri untuk menjual kas tersebut untuk didanai oleh pihak bank.

Bagaimana caranya?

Sebagai ilustrasi sederhana, katakan ada suatu proyek dengan data-data sebagai berikut:
• Investasi awal CU (Currency Unit) 12
• Arus kas t=1 : CU 10; t=2 : CU 5
• Tingkat diskonto = 5% (konstan selama 2 tahun)

 

Dari analisa spreadsheet, proyek ini akan memberikan NPV positif sebesar CU 2.06, dan karena NPV proyek tersebut positif, maka proyek tersebut layak untuk dijalankan.

 

NPV CU 2.06 berarti ini sama dengan memiliki kas hari ini sebesar CU 2.06.

Mengetahui bahwa akan ada arus kas sebesar CU 10 pada t=1, dan CU 5 pada t=2, kita bisa tawarkan ke Bank untuk mendanai sebesar CU 14.06, yaitu nilai diskonto dari CU 10 dan CU 5 pada tingkat diskonto 5%. Katakan kita bisa meminjam dengan tingkat suku bunga pinjaman sebesar 5% per tahun, maka kita akan mendapatkan dana sebesar CU 14.06 dari bank. Karena investasi proyek hanya memerlukan CU 12, maka selisih antara pinjaman CU 14.06 – CU 12 = CU 2.06, praktis dapat “kantongin” oleh perusahaan tersebut. Dengan kata lain, NPV positif berarti memiliki “kas” sebesar CU 2.06 pada hari ini.

Analisa spreadsheet sebagai berikut:

Dari analisa di atas, tampak bahwa kita dapat mempertimbangkan pembiayaan oleh pihak Bank untuk membantu analis mengurangi bias atas analisa NPV suatu proyek.

Sukarnen
22 Januari 2017