Please find enclosed my latest paper on AIRR, recently published in the Journal of Mathematical Economics. Section 8, specifically devoted to practitioners, shows three different examples, including HomeNet’s example from Berk and DeMarzo’s textbook.
I welcome your comments and thank you very much for your attention
I forward Prof. C.A. Magni’s above paper to Prof. Peter DeMarzo to seek his comments.
Personally, I see Magni’s paper on AIRR is quite comprehensive and convincing.
Hi Prof. Peter DeMarzo,I sent herewith one article written by Prof. C.A. Magni, in which he
shows AIRR implementation by using the HomeNet’s example taken from your book (see page 70 and 71).Though of course, we could just jump to NPV, yet, by putting something into “rate of return” (in %) it is much easier to get the point across to the other side of the table in many project analysis discussions.
It works for somebody without or with short finance course in the backdrop. Though I see a lot of Corporate Finance traditional textbooks explaining away on how to get the IRR, but it is not really touching the bone of this IRR. One article back in 1976 by C.B. Akerson, I guess, appropriately quite well in giving us a better idea about what this IRR is. From this paper, IRR seems this concept is built around the savings bank account analysis, in which the intermediate value is pretty clear to forecast.Akerson, C.B., The Internal Rate Of Return in Real Estate Investments,
A Research Monograph, Prepared for the American Society of Real Estate Counselors, 1976. Looking forward to hearing your opinion on this.
Prof. Peter DeMarzo:
I have looked briefly at this but still remain unconvinced that it is very practical. Like IRR, it does not improve upon NPV. And worse, it tempts users to rank projects by their returns – don’t you agree?
Ignacio Velez-Pareja (IVP)
On the last line from Ignacio Velez-Pareja:
What do you do with ONE IRR and N discount rates? Which discount rate is the one you choose to compare IRR with it?
I guess, the question is not quite apple-to-apple. IRR is, as we know, an “internal” rate of return, calculating by only need to know two things : the cash flows and the period (underlying assumption : the interval of the cash flow from one period to another period is the same), which means, under normal condition, we should have one or single rate. Since this is a single rate, then we need to compare it with another ‘single’ rate, which we could use CAGR, or many methods to come up with one single rate.
Remember that when correctly done, your cashflow valuation depends on two variables, among others: inflation rate and leverage. Also remember the circularity when using some methods of valuation. Hence, if discount rates change with time, (inflation and leverage) you will end up with N different discount rates. Which one will you choose for comparing the IRR with? The highest? The lowest? The simple average? Some kind of weighted average? Weighted on which basis?
Remind me what is CAGR, please.
CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate. Let’s say we were earning a total three-year holding rate of certain %, then CAGR is the annualized rate of return over that 3-year investment period.
Of course, a single rate might be a bit questioning if we are talking for more than 2-3 year investment horizon, yet I guess, the interest in certain countries could be quite stabile over a couple of years.
How about Ku (cost of unlevered equity)? Do you think business risk of the company will stay relatively the same? I guess, again, for certain industries, especially the mature ones, we could have used one Ku or one discount rate to compare to against IRR.
I am happy to read that authors start discrediting IRR as a decision tool to rank projects. I keep saying what I have said during many years: Don’t use IRR to rank projects, HOWEVER, use NPV AND calculate IRR to show the “size” of your return; if your project/firm has a strange behaviour and you can define a constant discount rate to compare with. Those cases of constant discount rates don’t exist for 2 simple reasons: first, in presence of varying inflation even Ku will vary and second, when properly done, D/E will vary in real life (I don’t know real cases of keeping constant D/E or D%, which is not very easy to model) and discount rate will vary as well.
Again, workout the NPV, the IRR and what I call the discounted payback period that is the moment when the firm/project repays all the investment including interest (discount rate). As follows:
The formulation assumes or shows constant discount rate i, BUT it can be non-constant. There is no (or better, I have no) compact formula to calculate Discounted Payback Period, with constant or non-constant I).
Yes, the problem is not calculating IRR. Usually you can calculate it, but that is not the problem. The problem arises when you calculate IRR = 12.5%, say and your discount rates are 5%, 10% 9%, 13%, 14.5% 10%, whatever. Which discount rate will you use to compare IRR with? A different thing is to calculate the IRR to estimate your avergae return, just that. Will you average your discount rates? If yes, that finally is massaging data. Remember what a econometrist said: If you torture enough your data, they will confess and tell what you need or something like that (https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/1249307-if-you-torture-the-data-long-enough-it-will-confess).
Carlo Alberto Magni, Associate Professor
Prof. DeMarzo‘s answer is in line with what he wrote to you in Dec 2015. He seems to dislike rates of return and prefer NPV.
I agree with him that NPV is the gold standard, but practitioners feel the rate-of-return notion is more intuitive, so it is our duty as scholars to provide an NPV-consistent measure of economic efficiency in relative terms
I sometimes work with practitioners and m always requested to provide an alternative to IRR which can be compatible with the NPV notion. AIRR is one such measure.
As for the idea that AIRR “tempts users to rank projects by their returns” my latest paper indeed shows that practitioners may use AIRR for ranking projects, getting the same result as the NPV ranking. You can download the paper:
Chisini Means and Rational Decision Making: Equivalence of Investment Criteria (by Carlo Alberto Magni, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia – Department of Economics; Piero Veronese, Bocconi University – Department of Decision Sciences; Rebecca Graziani, Bocconi University – Department of Policy Analysis and Public Management) Date written September 14, 2017
, where I presnet two different-but-equivalent method.
This is not to say that ranking projects with rates of return is recommended in general. It is only to say that (standardized) rates of return may be reliably employed for ranking projects. Evidently, care is needed to handle these cases and, needless to say, ranking with IRR is NPV-inconsistent.
I am currently working on a monograph presenting an integrated approach to proejct appraisal. Its title is “Project appraisal and the logic of valuation. Linking finance, acconting, and engineering economics” and all these issues will be investigated.
Click here to download it.
I sent to Prof. Peter DeMarzo, the paper co-written by Carlo Alberto Magni under the title: Chisini means and rational decision making: Equivalence of investment criteria.
Peter’s’ response : while the math is fine, I have yet to see a practical example where AIRR provides a useful and differentiated insight. Do you know of one?
Dalam training capital budgeting, timbul beberapa pertanyaan terkait Net Present Value, misalnya:
Apakah NPV yang positif selalu berarti perusahaan wajib menjalankannya, bagaimana kalau tidak ada dana untuk menjalankannya?
Net Present Value, dalam penerapannya relatif mudah dihitung, apalagi fungsi Excel NPV dapat digunakan kalau sudah ada cash flow pada t=0, t=1, dan seterusnya, sepanjang merupakan pola arus kas yang konvensional.
Aturan NPV juga sederhana, apabila NPV suatu proyek adalah memberikan arus kas bersih pada t=0, maka proyek tersebut akan memberikan “nilai tambah” bagi nilai kekekayaan pemegang saham (shareholders’ wealth). Secara teori, “nilai tambah” ini akan terwujud dalam kenaikan nilai saham.
Namun bagaimana memaknai apakah NPV suatu proyek yang positif apakah memang “benar-benar” layak dijalankan.
Menurut penulis, faktor “bankability” suatu proyek dapat merupakan salah satu pertimbangan dalam melihat secara realistis suatu NPV proyek.
NPV proyek yang positif, dapat saja terjadi karena terjadi “forecasting bias” atau bahkan “forecasting error”, “overconfident”, atau yang menarik untuk ditanyakan dapakah suatu proyek diusulkan karena proyek tersebut memberikan NPV yang positif, atau malah sebaliknya, karena proyek tersebut diusulkan, maka proyek tersebut perlu memberikan NPV yang positif?
Catatan di atas diingatkan oleh Brealey dan Myers (2000) :
Why is an M.B.A student who has learned about DCF like a baby with a hammer? Answer: Because to a baby with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
Our point is that you should not focus on the arithmetic of DCF and thereby ignore the forecasts that are the basis of every investment decision. Senior managers are continuously bombarded with requests for funds for capital expenditures. All these requests are supported with detailed DCF analyses showing that the projects have positive NPVs. How, then, can managers distinguish the NPVs that are truly positive from those that are merely the result of forecasting errors? We suggest that they should ask some probing questions about the possible sources of economic gain.
(Brealey, Richard A., dan Stewart C. Myers. Principles of Corporate Finance. Edisi 6. USA: The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2000. Bab 11: Where Positive Net Present Values Come From. Halaman 291.)
Dalam banyak buku-buku teks manajemen keuangan, tidak banyak disinggung kaitan antara NPV suatu proyek yang positif dengan pinjaman (borrowing).
Secara teori, suatu proyek yang memberikan NPV yang positif, mestinya dapat dibiayai dengan pinjaman (borrowing), dan proses ini dapat membantu perusahaan untuk memperoleh bantuan dari pihak ketiga, di luar perusahaan, terutama dari pihak banker, untuk melihat apakah analisa NPV yang positif memang menggambarkan “profitability” dan “kemampuan menghasilkan arus kas”.
Ross, Westerfield dan Jaffe (2005) :
The net present value of an investment is a simple criterion for deciding whether or not to undertake an investment. NPV answers the question of how much cash an investor would need to have today as a substitute for making the investment. If the net present value is positive, the investment is worth taking on because doing so is essentially the same as receiving a cash payment equal to the net present value. If the net present value is negative, taking on the investment today is equivalent to giving up some cash today, and the investment should be rejected.
(Ross, Stephen A., Randolph W. Westerfield, dan Jeffrey Jaffe. Corporate Finance. Edisi ketujuh. New York (USA): McGraw-Hill/Irwin, a business unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Bab 4: Net Present Value. Appendix 4A : Net Present Value : First Principles of Finance. Halaman 103.)
NPV positif berarti perusahaan memiliki kas (dalam kondisi kepastian/certainty) pada hari ini, dan kas tersebut berarti perusahaan cukup percaya diri untuk menjual kas tersebut untuk didanai oleh pihak bank.
Sebagai ilustrasi sederhana, katakan ada suatu proyek dengan data-data sebagai berikut:
• Investasi awal CU (Currency Unit) 12
• Arus kas t=1 : CU 10; t=2 : CU 5
• Tingkat diskonto = 5% (konstan selama 2 tahun)
Dari analisa spreadsheet, proyek ini akan memberikan NPV positif sebesar CU 2.06, dan karena NPV proyek tersebut positif, maka proyek tersebut layak untuk dijalankan.
NPV CU 2.06 berarti ini sama dengan memiliki kas hari ini sebesar CU 2.06.
Mengetahui bahwa akan ada arus kas sebesar CU 10 pada t=1, dan CU 5 pada t=2, kita bisa tawarkan ke Bank untuk mendanai sebesar CU 14.06, yaitu nilai diskonto dari CU 10 dan CU 5 pada tingkat diskonto 5%. Katakan kita bisa meminjam dengan tingkat suku bunga pinjaman sebesar 5% per tahun, maka kita akan mendapatkan dana sebesar CU 14.06 dari bank. Karena investasi proyek hanya memerlukan CU 12, maka selisih antara pinjaman CU 14.06 – CU 12 = CU 2.06, praktis dapat “kantongin” oleh perusahaan tersebut. Dengan kata lain, NPV positif berarti memiliki “kas” sebesar CU 2.06 pada hari ini.
Analisa spreadsheet sebagai berikut:
Dari analisa di atas, tampak bahwa kita dapat mempertimbangkan pembiayaan oleh pihak Bank untuk membantu analis mengurangi bias atas analisa NPV suatu proyek.
22 Januari 2017